2026 draft board
This year's
bust picks.
Top five model-ranked candidates at each position, limited to early and middle draft ranges. Players are ranked by bust signal, not by name value.
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Data / 2026 season
Find the
busts.
Players the market is paying too much for. A short list of names whose price leaves little room for a strong positional finish.
Scoring format
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01
What is
a bust?
A bust is a player being drafted earlier than their plausible fantasy outcome. The risk is not simply finding someone who may underperform. It is finding a player whose current price leaves too little room for a meaningful drop.
These picks focus on the early and middle rounds. A bust finishes at least five positional ranks behind ADP for quarterbacks and tight ends, or at least ten ranks behind for running backs and wide receivers, when ranked by actual fantasy points per game. All positions require a minimum eight-game sample.
Recent examples
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02
This year's
03
Historical check
Methodology
Each cell shows how often the selected number of top-ranked candidates actually finished at least five ranks behind ADP for quarterbacks and tight ends, or at least ten ranks behind for running backs and wide receivers, in a blind test.
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Correct calls
Notable busts the model found
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The model is trained only on seasons before each test season. Candidates are ranked internally by the model, while the public page shows names, draft context, and historical results rather than model probabilities.